How Polymarket Up or Down markets work
Every few minutes Polymarket US asks one question: will the price end this round higher than it started? Here's how those markets work, start to finish.
Updated 2026-10-29
The question each round asks
An Up or Down market covers one short round, for example 10:00 to 10:05. At the start, Polymarket US records the asset's price. That's the price to beat. When the round ends, it records the price again. If the end price is at or above the price to beat, Up wins. Otherwise Down wins. A tie goes to Up.
A new round starts the moment the last one ends, so there's always one running:
| Asset | Round lengths | When they run |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP | 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 1 hour | 24 hours a day, 7 days a week |
| Gold, silver | 15 minutes, 1 hour | Weekdays, with a short break around 5–6:15 PM Eastern; closed on weekends |
Shares, prices and payouts
You don't bet a fixed amount at fixed odds. You buy shares of Up or of Down. Each winning share pays $1; each losing share pays $0. A share costs somewhere between 1¢ and 99¢, and the price moves all round as people trade.
The price is the market's guess at the chance of that side winning. If Up costs 70¢, traders as a group think Up has about a 70% chance. Up and Down add up to about $1, so Down would cost about 30¢.
The life of one round
- Start. The price to beat is set from the official price at the start of the round.
- Trading. Up and Down shares trade the whole round. Early on, prices sit near 50¢ because a lot can still happen. As the round goes on and the price drifts above or below the price to beat, one side gets more expensive.
- The end. The official end price decides the winner (see how settlement works; crypto and gold settle differently).
- Payout. Winning shares pay $1 each. Losing shares pay nothing.
A worked example
Bitcoin's 15-minute round starts with a price to beat of $80,000.00. Ten minutes in, Bitcoin is at $80,060 and Up costs 72¢.
- You spend $36.00 on 50 Up shares at 72¢, plus a taker fee of about $0.70 (how fees work), so $36.70 in all.
- If Bitcoin settles at or above $80,000.00, your 50 shares pay $50.00: a profit of about $13.30.
- If it settles below, they pay $0 and you lose $36.70.
- Or, with two minutes left, you could sell the 50 shares at whatever the bid is (say 85¢) and lock in a profit without waiting.
Bid, ask and spread
The ask is the lowest price someone will sell you a share for. The bid is the highest price someone will pay for yours. The gap between them is the spread. Buying right away means paying the ask; selling right away means taking the bid. On busy markets like Bitcoin the spread is often 1¢; on quieter ones like silver it can be several cents, which eats into any edge.
Where WickTape fits
WickTape shows every one of these markets live: the price to beat, where the settlement price is heading, a model's chance of Up, Polymarket's own prices and order book, and a paper-money bot betting on it. It doesn't place real orders or hold money. Read how the bots decide, or just open a market and watch a round play out.
Quick answers
What is a Polymarket Up or Down market?
A short market that asks whether an asset's price will end a round at or above where it started. Polymarket US runs them for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP (5-minute, 15-minute and hourly rounds) and for gold and silver (15-minute and hourly rounds).
How much does a winning share pay?
$1. A losing share pays $0. The price you pay for a share, between 1¢ and 99¢, is roughly the market's estimate of the chance that side wins.
Can I sell before the round ends?
Yes. You can sell your shares at the current bid at any time before the round ends, for a profit or a loss.