How WickTape's bots decide
Each of WickTape's 16 bots watches one market and asks the same question every second: is Polymarket's price wrong by enough to be worth a bet?
Updated 2026-10-29
1. Estimate the chance of Up
The model starts from where the settlement price is now and how far it is from the price to beat. For crypto, it also uses live prices from the major exchanges, which run about 30 seconds ahead of the averaged settlement price. Then it asks how likely the price is to cross the line in the time left, given how much the price has been moving. Less time and a bigger gap mean a surer result.
2. Compare it with Polymarket's price
If the model says Up has an 80% chance and Up costs 72¢, there's an 8¢ gap. After the taker fee (about 1.4¢ a share at that price), that's a 6.6¢ edge. By default a bot only bets when:
- the edge is at least 4¢ a share after fees,
- the model is confident enough in that side,
- the round is far enough along (the end of a round is far more predictable than the start), and
- the edge holds for a couple of seconds and survives the actual order book.
3. Size the bet
Bets are sized as a fraction of the bot's bankroll that grows with the edge, and capped so no single round can do much damage. A bigger edge means a bigger bet, never "all in".
4. Hold, or sell early
Most bets are held to the result. A bot sells early only when selling pays clearly more than holding is worth:
- Locking in a win: if a bet is already worth a lot and selling now beats the model's chance of winning by a margin, it takes the money.
- Protecting a profit: if a bet is in profit and suddenly turns (the odds drop sharply in seconds), it sells only when selling still beats holding.
5. Know when to sit out
Bots skip rounds around big scheduled news (Fed decisions, jobs and inflation reports, the US stock market open), when the market is unusually wild, and, for gold and silver, whenever Polymarket US isn't running rounds. They're also extra careful about betting the opposite side in a round they just sold out of.
6. Learn from their own results
Every prediction is graded once the round ends. If the model turns out over- or under-confident in some situations, its probabilities are corrected. Shadow "ghost" bots with different settings trade alongside the real ones on paper, and settings that keep doing better can be adopted. Everything they learn shows up in the bots' logs.
See for yourself
Every settled bet, win or loss, is on the track record, along with how often the model and Polymarket's own prices picked the winner. Or open a market and watch a bot think in real time.
Quick answers
Do WickTape's bots trade real money?
No. Every bot trades with simulated paper money, using Polymarket US's live prices and fees. No real orders are placed.
How do the bots decide to bet?
They compare the model's chance of a side winning with what Polymarket charges for it. They only bet when the model's chance beats the price, after fees, by a set margin (4¢ by default), late enough in the round for the model to be confident.