Track record

Every bet the 16 bots have settled, wins and losses alike, nothing removed. Updated every minute.

Simulated results. These bots trade with paper money: no real orders are placed. Results include Polymarket US's fees and use the order-book price at the time, but real trading can differ. Past results don't predict future ones. Not financial advice.

Profit over time all 16 bots together, settled bets

Daily results last 60 days, your local dates may differ (Pacific time)

Is it beating the price? bets held to the result

A bet that costs 70¢ only makes money if it wins more than 70% of the time. So the honest test isn't "how often is it right", it's whether the win rate beats the average price paid.

By market

P&L = profit or loss in paper dollars. Return = profit ÷ total amount bet. Win rate counts sold bets that made money as wins. "Beat the price by" = win rate of bets held to the result minus the average price paid for them.

Accuracy vs the market who called the winner more often: the model or Polymarket's own price

At fixed times before each round ends, the model's chance of Up and Polymarket's price for Up are recorded, then graded when the official result comes in. "Error score" is the Brier score: 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better. Being right often near the end is easy (the price usually already shows it); the edge, if any, is in being right more often than the market.