How Up or Down markets settle
The winner is decided by one official price at the end of the round. Which price, and how it's measured, is different for crypto and for gold and silver, and it changes how the last minute plays out.
Updated 2026-10-29
Crypto: a 60-second average
For Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP, Polymarket US uses CF Benchmarks' real-time index for each coin (for Bitcoin, the BRTI, built from prices on several large exchanges). It doesn't settle on a single tick. It uses a rolling 60-second average of that index, published once a second.
- The price to beat is that average at the second before the round starts.
- The end price is that average at the second before the round ends.
Why the last minute matters most
Because the end price averages the final 60 seconds, every second of the last minute counts for 1/60th of the result. By the time 30 seconds are left, half the average is already locked in. A late spike moves the result much less than it moves the live price. It also means the settlement price trails the live price by about 30 seconds. When Bitcoin jumps, the average follows a little later. WickTape's live exchange prices show where the average is heading before it gets there.
Gold and silver: one price at the last second
Gold and silver settle on the Chainlink spot price (XAU/USD for gold, XAG/USD for silver) at the exact end time, rounded to the nearest cent. There's no averaging. The price to beat is the same Chainlink price at the start time.
That makes the final seconds far more of a coin flip than in crypto: a small move right at the end can flip the result. On the other hand, there's no lag. The settlement price is the live price.
| Crypto | Gold & silver | |
|---|---|---|
| Price source | CF Benchmarks real-time index (BRTI for Bitcoin) | Chainlink XAU/USD, XAG/USD |
| What's measured | 60-second average | One price, at the end second |
| Official end price | Average at the second before the end | Price at the end time |
| Last-minute effect | Gradual, half locked in by 30 s left | Can flip in the final seconds |
| Tie | Up wins | Up wins |
When the result is known
Polymarket US publishes its settlement price series every second, so the deciding number exists the moment a round ends. WickTape settles its paper bets right then, using that published number, and then checks Polymarket's official result in the background. If the two ever differed, the bot's log would show a correction.
Next: what Polymarket US charges.
Quick answers
What price settles Polymarket's Bitcoin Up or Down markets?
A 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI), published every second. The official start and end prices are that average at the second before the round's start and end times.
What price settles Polymarket's gold and silver Up or Down markets?
The Chainlink XAU/USD (gold) or XAG/USD (silver) spot price at the round's end time, rounded to the nearest cent.
What happens if the price ends exactly where it started?
Up wins. The rule is 'at or above the price to beat'.